Tuesday, December 27, 2016

Here is last weeks Economic News from my friends at Movement Mortgage
Last Week’s Economic News in Review
Existing home sales enjoyed a surge in November, and new home sales also saw better-than-expected gains for the month. Meanwhile, incomes skirted down and spending notched up by equally slight amounts.
Existing Home Sales
Gains in the Northeast and the South helped existing home sales see their third straight monthly gain, according to last week's report from the National Association of Realtors. Transactions of single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops grew 0.7 percent for the month to hit an annual rate of 5.61 million. This was 15.4 percent higher than November 2015's rate, and was the best sales pace since February 2007's rate of 5.79 million.
"The healthiest job market since the Great Recession and the anticipation of some buyers to close on a home before mortgage rates accurately rose from their historically low level have combined to drive sales higher in recent months," said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. "Furthermore, it's no coincidence that home shoppers in the Northeast — where price growth has been tame all year — had the most success last month."
November's median price for existing homes of all types grew to $234,900, which was 6.8 percent higher than November 2015's $220,000 price tag. This was the 57th consecutive monthly year-over-year price gain.
The supply of existing homes for sale at the end of November dropped 8 percent to 1.85 million units, representing a 4-month inventory at November's sales rate. November's supply was 9.3 percent down from November 2015's 2.04 million homes.
New Home Sales
Turning to new real estate, sales of new single-family homes grew 5.2 percent in November to hit an annual rate of 592,000, the Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development reported last week. This was well above market expectations of a 573,000 annual rate and was 16.5 percent over November 2015's pace of 508,000.
Looking at price, November's median new home price came in at $305,400 and the average sales price was $359,900. In terms of inventory, the estimated supply of new homes for sale at the end of November totaled 250,000, representing a 5.1-months' supply at November's sales rate.
"Builders seem prepared to be a little more aggressive to meet the excess of demand over supply, though," Amherst Pierpont Securities Chief Economist Stephen Stanley wrote in a statement. " ... Higher mortgage rates could produce renewed caution heading into next year."
Personal Incomes and Spending
While inventory helps temper home prices, incomes are the other half of the housing affordability equation. In that regard, personal incomes grew $1.6 billion, which was less than 0.1 percent, according to last week's report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This was well below the 0.3 percent increase the market had expected. Disposable personal income (DPI; income after taxes) dropped $1.3 billion (again, less than 0.1 percent) from October.
While incomes were slightly down, spending was slightly up. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) grew $24.0 billion, which was roughly 0.2 percent higher than October's spending, according to the Bureau. Excluding food and energy, personal spending grew less than 0.1 percent.
This week, we can expect a light calendar of economic reports, due to the holidays:
Tuesday — December consumer confidence from The Conference Board.
Thursday — Initial jobless claims for last week from the Employment and Training Administration.

Thursday, December 22, 2016

Here is some more Economic News from Lauren and my friends at Movement Mortgage.

Last Week’s Economic News in Review
Retail sales saw slight gains ahead of the holidays, while housing starts experienced a predictable drop after hitting a nine-year high, and layoffs were down.

Retail Sales

Retail sales for November notched up to $465.5 billion, a slight gain of 0.1 percent over October, and 3.8 percent higher than November 2015, the Census Bureau reported last week. While posting a gain, November's sales were slightly below market expectations of a 0.3 percent gain for the start of the holiday shopping season.

Key retail growth segments included food services and drinking establishments, which grew 0.8 percent; furniture and home furnishing stores, which gained 0.7 percent; gas stations, which notched up 0.3 percent; and building material and garden equipment and supplies stores, which increased 0.3 percent.

Main economists commented that December could see a larger holiday spike, and particularly among non-store retailers.

"On a year-ago basis, total retail sales were up 3.8 percent in November, indicating that this will be a good year for holiday sales," PNC Financial Services Group Deputy Chief Economist Gus Faucher wrote in a public statement. "However, gains for traditional retailers will be much weaker due to the increasing reach of online sales."

Housing Starts

After seeing a nine-year high in October, starts on construction of private housing in November dropped to an annual rate of 1.09 million, which was a whopping 18.7 percent below October's rate of 1.34 million, which was the highest monthly rate in nine years, according to last week's report from the Census Bureau.

Compared annually, November's pace was 6.9 percent below November 2015's rate of 1.17 million. While the overall monthly figure was a sizable drop, starts on single-family homes fell 4.1 percent from October to a rate of 828,000 in November.

Construction permits for home construction issued in November dropped to an annual rate of 1.2 million, which was 4.7 percent below October's rate of 1.26 million, and was 6.6 percent below the November 2015's pace of 1.28 million. Meanwhile, permits issued for single-family homes in November notched up to a rate of 778,000, which was 0.5 percent higher than October's rate of 774,000.

"The trends in the single-family data still appear to be moving higher over time, which is a favorable signal regarding upcoming single-family construction activity," JPMorgan Economist Daniel Silver told the Reuters news service.

Initial Jobless Claims

First-time claims for unemployment benefits filed by the newly unemployed during the week ending December 10 dropped to 254,000, a decline of 4,000 claims from the preceding week's total of 258,000, the Employment and Training Administration reported last week.

This was slightly below market expectations of 256,000 initial claims, and marked the 93rd straight week that initial claims have fallen below 300,000, a mark that economists consider indicative of a growing job market. This has been the longest such streak since 1970.

The four-week moving average — considered a more accurate gauge of layoffs — totaled 257,750 claims, a gain of 5,250 from the prior week's average of 252,500.

This week we can expect:
Wednesday — Existing home sales for November from the National Association of Realtors.
Thursday — Third quarter GDP, third estimate, and personal incomes and spending for November from the Bureau of Economic Analysis; initial jobless claims for last week from the Employment and Training Administration; durable goods orders for November from the Census Bureau; leading economic indicators for November from The Conference Board.
Friday — New home sales for November from the Census Bureau; consumer sentiment for December from the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers.